Ranking the Champions League field: Arsenal’s title to lose?

One of the primary complaints about the new Champions League format, with no groups and one large, 36-team table, is that it’s hard to figure out the stakes from week to week. There’s plenty of truth in that concern. But we’re four matchdays into the 2025-26 Champions League league phase, having hit the halfway point this week, and we can definitely find that plenty has changed since the competition began a couple of months ago.Liverpool have stumbled, but if Tuesday’s win over Real Madrid is any indication, might be righting the ship. Arsenal’s odds of a Premier League-Champions League double improve by the day. Bayern are reminding us all that if you win every match, you’re going to win lots of trophies. And as a whole, we’ve seen far more early focus from the sport’s heavyweights than a year ago — we don’t have teams like Real Madrid or PSG flirting with missing out on a top-24 finish.With a partial focus on the goings-on of this week’s Matchday 4 action, let’s take a look at the biggest things that have (or haven’t) changed since this competition began.Granted, four matches haven’t changed much for some teams. Of the 36 teams in the league phase, 18 have a projected point total, per Opta’s power ratings, within two points of what it was in early September. Monaco, for instance, has evidently changed absolutely nothing thus far — they’ve gone from 10.1 expected points … to 10.1 expected points.However, nine teams have seen their points and odds shift a good amount in a positive direction.The first thing you probably notice is that most of those teams are big names. Last year’s league phase saw teams like PSG and Manchester City have to rally from poor runs of form to still make the knockout rounds, and their draws were much more difficult because of it: Manchester City was seeded just 22nd and ended up losing to Real Madrid in the round of 24 — sorry, the knockout phase play-offs — while PSG was seeded 15th and drew Liverpool in the round of 16. Granted, they beat Liverpool and went on to win the tournament, but their draw was still harder than they would have hoped it would be.Bayern’s and Arsenal’s leagues have also seen the most projected improvement. Bundesliga teams have seen their average expected point total rise by 2.0 points, thanks to both Bayern’s and Borussia Dortmund’s early work. (The other two Bundesliga teams in the field, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen, have seen their expected point totals barely change.) Meanwhile, English teams are up by an average of 1.7, which shouldn’t be a surprise since three of the five are represented in the table above.Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now